Country Ranking Model - APRIL 2024

April Country Rankings

Italy (#1):

Moving into first place this month is Italy with a combination of excellent fundamentals (7th), low risk (4th), attractive valuations (6th) and improving momentum (10th). Year to date, the MSCI Italy index is up13.7%, propelled by companies such as Unicredit SPA, Intesa Sanpaolo, Ferrari, and Stellantis Europe (formerly Fiat-Chrysler) in the banking and automobile sectors. With real GDP growth of 0.6% YoY forecast for 2024, the Italian economy appears to have avoided recession and is set to grow faster than many of its European neighbors.

Poland (#2):

Despite Poland’s stellar fundamentals (2nd), momentum (3rd), and valuations (1st), it has slipped into second place this month due to an increase in risk (ranked 30th) that was driven by greater downside deviation and widening credit default swap spreads. Poland’s economy continues to grow at one of the fastest rates in Europe, with 2.9% real GDP growth forecast for 2024.

Netherlands (#3):

Entering the top 3 this month is the Netherlands. The MSCI Netherlands index is dominated by ASML, which carries a 22% weighting. The company is the leading provider of equipment to computer chip makers worldwide and boasted a valuation of $383 billion as of March 31st. The stock’s impressive 28% year-to-date price increase has been fueled by the surge in demand for AI. As semiconductors have become ever more in demand, the value of chip-making equipment continues to grow.

Country Performance:

Country Ranking Model

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