Country Ranking Model - February 2024

February Country Rankings

Poland (#1):

Poland remains in first place overall, with excellent fundamentals (ranked #1), valuations (#1) and momentum (#3). Poland has tripled the value of its economy in the last 30 years with some of the highest economic growth rates in the world. The country capitalized on its Communist legacy of industrialization and has attracted foreign investments from the West. This, in turn, stimulated domestic production, successfully inserting the country’s economy into global supply chains. Orlen SA serves as a good example of Poland’s integration into the global economy. The oil refiner was born out of the privatization and merger of two failing state-run petrochemical firms. Today, the company supplies energy to over 100 million Europeans and their products are sold across six continents. Orlen holds a 13.4% weighting in the MSCI Poland index.

Italy (#2):

Italy ranks well across all four factors, but the country’s valuations in particular stand out (ranked 3rd overall). With an earnings yield of 10.4%, price-to-cash earnings of only 5.9, and forward P/E of 9.0, Italian equities are a bargain. With global interest rates higher than they have been in decades, we believe the value factor is primed for outperformance.

Germany (#3):

Germany’s economy contracted -0.3% YoY in 2023 and just barely avoided a technical recession. However, the economy appears to have troughed, and corporate fundamentals are rebounding. Germany is ranked 8th from a fundamental factor perspective. Meanwhile from a risk perspective, Germany is ranked 3rd. The premiums on German credit default swaps are among the lowest in our universe.

Country Performance:

Country Ranking Model

Disclosures: This information was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Accuvest as of the date of writing and are subject to change. Any research is based on Accuvest proprietary research and analysis of global markets and investing. The information and/or analysis presented have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, however Accuvest does not make any representation as their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof.  Some internally generated information may be considered theoretical in nature and is subject to inherent limitations associated therein.   Any sectors or allocations referenced may or may not be represented in portfolios of clients of Accuvest, and do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for client accounts.

The reader should not assume that any investments in sectors and markets identified or described were or will be profitable. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. The use of tools cannot guarantee performance. The charts depicted within this presentation are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results may vary based on an investor’s investment objectives and portfolio holdings. Investors may need to seek guidance from their legal and/or tax advisor before investing. The information provided may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.